Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors. The set of predictors includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In each of the individual specifications we allow for stochastic breaks in regression parameters, where the breaks are described as occasional shocks of random magnitude. As such, our framework simultaneously addresses structural change and model certainty that unavoidably affects Phillips curve forecasts. We use this framework to describe PCE deflator and GDP deflator inflation rates for the United States across the post-WWII period. Over the full1960-2008 sample the framework indicates several structural breaks across different combinations of activity measures. These breaks often coincide with, amongst others, policy regime changes and oil price shocks. In contrast to many previous studies, we find less evidence for autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a \\textit{real-time} out-of-sample forecasting exercise we show that our model specification generally provides superior one-quarter and one-year ahead forecasts for quarterly inflation relative to a whole range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature.Bayesian model averaging;structural breaks;real-time data;model uncertainty;Phillips correlations;inflation forecasting

New multi-country evidence on purchasing power parity: multivariate unit root test results

In this paper a likelihood-based multivariate unit root testing framework is utilized to test whether the real exchange rates of G10 countries are non-stationary. The framework uses a likelihood ratio statistic which combines the information across all involved countries while retaining heterogeneous rates of mean reversion. This likelihood ratio statistic has an asymptotic distribution which can be typified as a summation of squared, univariate Dickey and Fuller (1979) distributions. Our multivariate unit root tests indicate that bilateral G10 real exchange rates are stationary, irrespective of the numeraire country. We also analyze per panel the time necessary to have an adjustment to a shock in the individual real exchange rates. From this analysis it becomes apparent that there are significant cross-country differences in the adjustment of individual real exchange rates within each panel

Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors. The set of predictors includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In each of the individual specifications we allow for stochastic breaks in regression parameters, where the breaks are described as occasional shocks of random magnitude. As such, our framework simultaneously addresses structural change and model certainty that unavoidably affects Phillips curve forecasts. We use this framework to describe PCE deflator and GDP deflator inflation rates for the United States across the post-WWII period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample the framework indicates several structural breaks across different combinations of activity measures. These breaks often coincide with, amongst others, policy regime changes and oil price shocks. In contrast to many previous studies, we find less evidence for autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a \\textit{real-time} out-of-sample forecasting exercise we show that our model specification generally provides superior one-quarter and one-year ahead forecasts for quarterly inflation relative to a whole range of forecasting models that are typically used in the literature

New multi-country evidence on purchasing power parity: multivariate unit root test results

In this paper a likelihood-based multivariate unit root testing framework is utilized to test whether the real exchange rates of G10 countries are non-stationary. The framework uses a likelihood ratio statistic which combines the information across all involved countries while retaining heterogeneous rates of mean reversion.This likelihood ratio statistic has an asymptotic distribution which can be typified as a summation of squared, univariate Dickey and Fuller (1979) distributions. Our multivariate unit root tests indicate that bilateral G10 real exchange rates are stationary, irrespective of the numeraire country. We also analyze per panel the time necessary to have an adjustment to a shock in the individual real exchange rates. From this analysis it becomes apparent that there are significant cross-country differences in the adjustment of individual real exchange rates within each panel.PPP;Maximum likelihood estimation;Multivariate unit root testing;Real exchange rates

(EURO) Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-Country Panel

In this paper a panel of vector error correction models based on a common long-run relationship is utilized to test whether the DM exchange rates of Canada, Japan and the United States comply in the long-run with a rational expectations-based monetary exchange rate model. Compared to existing coin-tegration frameworks our approach indicates that the aforementioned exchange rates are indeed consis-tent with the monetary exchange rate model based on a common long-run relationship. We also analyze the out-of-sample fit of this common long-run exchange rate model relative to naive random walk-based forecasts through several forecasting evaluation measures. These forecasting evaluations indicate that the monetary model-based common long-run model is superior to both random walk-based forecasts and standard cointegrated VAR model-based forecasts.Panel cointegration testing; nominal exchange rates; exchange rate predictability.

Corporate Credit, Stock Price Inflation and Economic Fluctuations

We analyze in this paper the empirical interaction between real corporate credit, real income, real stock prices, the short-term interest rate and inflation for the Netherlands and the United States. The framework is based on a five-variable vector error correction model with economically based restrictions upon the cointegrating vectors. Structure is imposed on the vector error correction model in order to identify the permanent and temporary shocks within the system and we use impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions to analyze the interdependencies between the aforementioned variables. Erratic shocks in the real amount of corporate credit and in stock prices could potentially have some impact on inflation in the case of United States and on real output in the Netherlands. However, our structural VAR analysis also shows that the above mentioned erratic shocks only explain a small proportion of the variation in inflation and economic activity, and inflation objective shifts and supply side shocks are much more important determinants for economic fluctuations.Corporate credit; stock prices; vector error correction models; impulse response functions.

The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon

Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory. Based on a panel version of the Engle and Granger (1987) two-step procedure we find that the residuals of our pooled estimated model are stationary. This indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework for cointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector error correction models. Maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated Generalized Method of Moments estimators. Using these estimators we construct likelihood ratio statistics to test for a common cointegration rank across the individual vector error correction models, both with heterogeneous and homogeneous cointegrating vectors. The corresponding limiting distributions are a summation of the limiting behavior of Johansen (1991) trace statistics. We also incorporate both unrestricted and restricted deterministic components which are either homogeneous or heterogeneous, and extend the asymptotic distribution theory to cover the case of an infinite cross-section dimension. The proposed framework is applied on a data set of exchange rates and appropriate monetary fundamentals. The test results show strong evidence for the validity of the monetary exchange rate model within a panel of vector error correction models for three major European countries, whereas the results based on individual vector error correction models for each of these countries separately are less supportive.likelihood; GMM; cointegration; panels of vector error correction models; common cointegration rank; exchange rates

Doppler gradients, valve area and ventricular function in pregnant women with aortic or pulmonary valve disease: left versus right

Objective: Little is known about the course of echocardiographic parameters used for the evaluation of valvular heart disease (VHD) during pregnancy, hampering interpretation of possible changes (physiological vs. pathophysiological). Therefore we studied the course of these parameters and ventricular function in pregnant women with aortic and pulmonary VHD.Methods: The cohort comprised 66 pregnant women enrolled in the prospective ZAHARA studies or evaluated by an identical protocol who had pulmonary VHD or aortic VHD (stenosis/prosthetic valve). The control group comprised 46 healthy pregnant women. Echocardiography was performed preconception, during pregnancy and 1 year postpartum. Peak gradient, mean gradient, aortic valve area (AVA)/effective orifice area (EOA), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and right ventricular function (RVF; TAPSE) were assessed.Results: Peak and mean gradients increased during pregnancy compared to preconception inwomen with aortic VHD and controls (p = 23 mm; p < 0.001). In women with pulmonary VHD a decrease of TAPSE was observed during pregnancy (p = 0.005).Conclusion: Physiological changes during pregnancy lead to increased Doppler gradients in women with aortic VHD. This increase was not found inwomen with pulmonary VHD, probably caused by impaired RVF. Therefore, evaluation of RVF during pregnancy might be important to prevent underestimation of the degree of stenosis. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved